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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:266.0
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:323
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:106


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17266.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Auburn (15.0)SECA102-74L0%0.0
11-18San Diego (143.0)WCCA71-62L0%0.0
11-20Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA85-60L0%0.0
11-24Robert Morris (196.0)NECN75-53L0%0.0
11-26Little Rock (308.0)SBA70-55L0%0.0
11-29Kent St. (154.0)MACH70-79L0%0.0
12-2Bowling Green (193.0)MACH77-92L0%0.0
12-9Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCA80-52L0%0.0
12-16Niagara (163.0)MAACH82-85L0%0.0
12-18Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCA83-66L0%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA61-50L0%0.0
12-30Stony Brook (208.0)AEA68-74W100%0.0
1-3Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH75-67W100%0.0
1-8North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA64-63L0%0.0
1-18North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACA71-68L0%0.0
1-20South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA54-78W100%0.0
1-22Savannah St. (197.0)MEACA104-99L0%0.0
1-27Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH71-70W100%0.0
1-29Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH80-71W100%0.0
2-3Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH76-65W100%0.0
2-5Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA79-83W100%0.0
2-10Hampton (237.0)MEACA82-52L0%0.0
2-12Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH93-58W100%0.0
2-17Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH85-77W100%0.0
2-19South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH76-62W100%0.0
2-24Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA63-74W100%0.0
2-26Howard (339.0)MEACA74-79W100%0.0
3-1Hampton (237.0)MEACH71-74L0%0.0
3-5Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACN78-68W100%0.0
3-8North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACN64-70L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.1426.1446.2146.21-1.98-1.98
HamptonMEAC4.014.0148.2848.28-0.14-0.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.993.9953.3353.330.270.27
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.953.9517.8617.86-2.54-2.54
Savannah St.MEAC3.933.9342.8642.86-0.56-0.56
South Carolina St.MEAC3.933.9328.5728.57-1.68-1.68
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.903.9057.1457.140.560.56
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.482.4850.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC2.432.4337.9337.93-0.59-0.59
Florida A&MMEAC2.372.3725.0025.00-1.19-1.19
Coppin St.MEAC2.352.3516.1316.13-1.59-1.59
HowardMEAC2.312.3126.6726.67-1.08-1.08
Delaware St.MEAC2.312.316.906.90-1.99-1.99
Grand CanyonWAC1.831.8364.5264.520.530.53
Old DominionCUSA1.751.7577.4277.420.960.96
Kent St.MAC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC1.751.7546.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Little RockSB1.751.7517.2417.24-1.14-1.14
San DiegoWCC1.751.7555.1755.170.180.18
Bowling GreenMAC1.741.7444.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.691.6983.8783.871.151.15
AuburnSEC1.671.6777.4277.420.910.91
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
NiagaraMAAC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Stony BrookAE1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
George WashingtonA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
DrakeMVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UMBCAE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
AmericanPat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
TroySB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
WisconsinB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01